
假设状况法就是依据作业分析的结果,直观形象地假设事件元可能发生的危险因素及后果。它是风险确认工具中最有效力的方法之一,尤其对于掌握有关失败模式的危险因素数据特别有效。假设状况法的典型使用情况,是在作业分析与PHA之后作为第一项使用工具。例如,PHA揭露某一方面的危险因素,而它需要进一步地探讨,深入探讨该方面因素的最佳单一工具可能就是假设状况法。使用者可集中于某个关切的危险点,然后使用假设状况法去实际地挖掘出危险因素。
运用「假设状况」法分析,可以辅以情境思考加以扩展,以便进一步探讨作业中的危险因素。为使用情境思考,可发展一些简短的情境,而它们可反应作业中多重危险因素复合影响下的最坏可能结果。在撰写情景时,一般以遵循以下原则:
2 简洁清楚,不拘泥于词句及文法
2 包括人员、机器、环境条件、管理等要素
2 鼓励想象力与直觉
2 将情境延伸至最坏可能结果
评价:
重要性:☆☆☆☆☆
难易程度:☆☆
推荐指数:☆☆☆☆☆
杀伤力:☆☆☆☆☆
「假设状况」法示例:
场面:描绘一组三名操作员工,非正式地利用假设状况法,以讨论一项将多吨重的机器,从一个地点搬到另一个地点的任务。其中部份讨论情况如下:
甲:假如机器翻倒并且掉落而打断其后方墙壁内的电线,情况将如何?乙:假如它打到位于西边墙上的焊接管,情况将如何呢?(乙将甲假设的情况进一步延伸,从原先所提出的危险因素中再产生另一个变形。)丙:假如底板因为重量集中在叉车底部而破裂,情况将如何?甲:假如机器上用以提升的端点,被叉车损坏,情况将如何?乙:假如电线、气压管或其它机器附件没有正确归位,情况将如何?丙:假如关闭/开启标示,没有正确运用于机器所需的电源上,则情况将如何?等等….
附注:在工作底稿上掌握每一种假设状况相当重要。当可能的情况基本穷尽,则将危险因素归纳为几个相似类别。上例中所列者,可以分别归类如下:类别1:机器掉落的危险因素。类别2:重量所导致的失常。类别3:机器关闭与启用的危险因素。而后这些相关类别的危险因素,再进行作业风险管理程序的其余五步骤的处理。
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